Tehran has rejected President Trump’s latest Tuesday deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, making clear it will not trade a short-term ceasefire for access through the chokepoint. At the same time, Iranian officials are now openly talking about the possibility of disrupting Bab al‑Mandeb, the gateway to the Red Sea, raising the prospect of a second energy corridor facing explicit threats.
West Coast Shipping has followed this crisis from the first week; for background on how we got here, see our earlier analyses on Day 27 and Trump’s April 6 deadline, the Dubai tanker strike, and Day 32’s IRGC threats to US firms and Kharg Island.
BBC News, CNN, Al Jazeera, The Guardian, and The New York Times all report that Tehran has rejected the latest US ceasefire proposal tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz before Trump’s Tuesday deadline. CNN notes that Trump publicly framed today as a deadline for Iran to reopen Hormuz and has warned of “consequences” if it does not, but there is no sign Iran plans to change its maritime posture.
Al Jazeera’s liveblog says Iranian officials have rejected Trump’s Tuesday deadline on the Strait of Hormuz and insist on a permanent end to the war, lifting of sanctions, and a structured safe‑passage regime before considering reopening. Bloomberg reports that Iran conveyed these demands via Pakistan and has rejected a ceasefire in advance of the deadline, even as the US signals it is prepared to escalate strikes on infrastructure if Hormuz stays closed.
The Guardian and The New York Times both emphasize that this is the latest in a series of shifting deadlines: Trump initially issued a 48‑hour ultimatum in late March, extended it once, and is now framing today as another key date, while Iran maintains its leverage comes from keeping Hormuz under its control. AP adds that Trump’s ultimatum explicitly centers on reopening “the vital oil shipping route” and quotes his warning that if Iran does not comply, “you’ll be living in hell.”
Al Jazeera also reports that Iranian officials are now explicitly threatening Bab al‑Mandeb, the narrow strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, and asks what a closure there would mean for world trade if it coincided with a continued Hormuz shutdown. CNN Business previously highlighted that producers have already shifted some flows to the Red Sea and pipelines to Yanbu to bypass Hormuz, underscoring how a Bab al‑Mandeb escalation would hit those fallback routes as well.
The immediate takeaway for shipping and logistics is that the hoped‑for April 6 inflection point has not materialized. Iran is keeping Hormuz under de facto closure for Western‑aligned shipping, while the US ties further escalation to the same chokepoint; neither side is backing down in a way that restores normal commercial transit.
For the last five weeks, reporting from outlets such as Reuters and maritime intelligence platforms has described Hormuz as effectively shut to mainstream tanker and container traffic, functioning instead as a tightly controlled, permission‑only corridor for Iranian and select friendly‑flag vessels. Today’s rejection of the latest US proposal means that status quo persists, with hundreds of tankers and cargo vessels still anchored in or around the Gulf and transit volumes down sharply from the 70–80 ships per day seen before the war.
Al Jazeera cites expert estimates that if both Hormuz and Bab al‑Mandeb were shut, “a quarter of the world’s energy supply” could be blocked, because Red Sea traffic and Gulf traffic would both be constrained at the same time. For container shipping and vehicle logistics, that would mean not just longer routes, but a fundamental re‑drawing of global east–west trade maps.
For West Coast Shipping customers, the operational reality is simple: Hormuz remains unusable for vehicle shipments; the Red Sea and Bab al‑Mandeb carry elevated risk; and the Cape of Good Hope detour remains the backbone for Asia–Europe and Asia–US East Coast routes.
AP notes that Trump’s current deadline explicitly demands Iran open the Strait of Hormuz or face further attacks, yet there is no indication Tehran intends to do so. The New York Times recalls that this is at least the third iteration of such a deadline, following an earlier 48‑hour window and extension, none of which led to reopening.
Data and satellite analysis from Reuters and others show that since early March, war‑risk cover has been withdrawn, tanker crossings have collapsed, and at one point traffic fell effectively to zero, with more than 150 tankers and dozens of other ships anchored on both sides of the strait. West Coast Shipping’s own Day 18 and Week 3 breakdowns documented this shift: zero transits on some days, about 1,000 ships stranded near the chokepoint, and broad carrier rerouting via the Cape for both tankers and container ships.
Today’s political messaging does not change that physical reality. From a logistics standpoint, Hormuz remains closed to Western‑aligned commercial shipping, and any future reopening would still need time for insurers, carriers, and navies to validate the security environment before service resumes.
Al Jazeera’s explainer on Bab al‑Mandeb notes that if that chokepoint were shut along with the Strait of Hormuz, a quarter of the world’s energy supply could be blocked, citing energy‑market experts on how simultaneous disruption of both corridors could affect global flows. CNN Business previously described the Red Sea as a “lifeline” for global oil after Hormuz attacks forced producers to seek alternative routes, with flows shifted via pipelines to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast.
West Coast Shipping’s Day 32 analysis already flagged that Iran was pressing Houthi forces to prepare renewed attacks on Red Sea shipping; today’s explicit mention of Bab al‑Mandeb reinforces that the Red Sea corridor cannot be treated as a safe, stable substitute.
West Coast Shipping’s prior route‑risk snapshot still holds, with one important update on Red Sea pressure:
| Trade lane | Pre‑war routing | Current status (Day 37) |
|---|---|---|
| Asia → Gulf container | Via Malacca, Arabian Sea, Hormuz | Hormuz still closed to Western carriers; Gulf calls mostly suspended or feeder‑only from safer hubs |
| Asia → Europe | Via Suez | Majority of services detoured via Cape of Good Hope; roughly 10–14 extra days per round trip |
| Europe → Middle East | Via Suez, Red Sea | Red Sea in use but under elevated risk; Bab al‑Mandeb explicitly mentioned as potential target |
| Tanker / LNG global | Via Hormuz (around 20% of global oil) | Shadow‑fleet and friendly‑flag flows continue selectively; Western majors stay out |
Since the first week of the conflict, major carriers have suspended Hormuz transits, re‑routed Asia–Europe strings via the Cape, and applied emergency surcharges; none of today’s developments change that baseline. West Coast Shipping’s earlier Maersk update and subsequent Hormuz crisis coverage documented how Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag‑Lloyd either suspended Gulf services outright or declared end‑of‑voyage for cargo bound to the region, while shifting tonnage to safer loops.
With Tehran rejecting the Hormuz deadline and hinting at Bab al‑Mandeb, carriers are likely to:
Maintain or deepen avoidance of the northern Gulf, with minimal direct calls and reliance on feeders and alternative hubs when absolutely necessary.
Keep most Asia–Europe mainlines on Cape routings, even if selected Red Sea corridors remain nominally open, to reduce exposure to an expanded conflict zone.
Adjust schedules and capacity deployment dynamically as war‑risk underwriters and naval advisories respond to any new incidents in the Red Sea or near Bab al‑Mandeb.
For ports, this means continued congestion in “safe” hubs — from European gateways to African and Mediterranean transshipment ports — as diverted traffic piles up.
The April 6 deadline was seen by some in the freight market as a potential turning point; with Hormuz still closed, that relief scenario is off the table for now. Recent analyses suggest that detours around the Cape of Good Hope add roughly 10–20 days to certain Asia–Europe and energy routes and have driven some ocean freight rates up by as much as 50% on affected corridors.
For containerized vehicle flows, this translates into:
Longer rotations. Each vessel can complete fewer round trips per year, tightening effective capacity even if fleet size stays the same.
Higher bunker consumption. Ships cover more miles per voyage, compounded by oil‑price volatility from the energy shock.
Persistent surcharges. Emergency risk and fuel surcharges that were initially framed as temporary now look likely to persist into future contract cycles.
If Bab al‑Mandeb incidents escalate, further increases in Asia–Europe and Europe–Middle East rates are likely, as some carriers may decide to avoid the Red Sea entirely and run even more loops around Africa.
West Coast Shipping’s broader cost breakdowns — for example, in our guide to shipping costs to Rotterdam and our various Iran‑war shipping updates — show how these macro shocks filter down into per‑container and per‑vehicle pricing.
For vehicle shippers, dealers, and private buyers, Day 37 reinforces planning assumptions we have been emphasizing since early March:
Do not plan on a near‑term Hormuz reopening. Even if a ceasefire framework emerges later, insurers and carriers will need time to restore coverage and service.
Expect Cape routings to remain the norm for Asia–Europe and Asia–US East Coast services for the foreseeable future, with transit times extended by roughly two weeks or more compared with pre‑war schedules.
Treat Red Sea corridors as elevated‑risk routes. They may remain in use, but any Bab al‑Mandeb incident could trigger abrupt schedule and routing changes.
If you are planning to move vehicles internationally in this environment, the key is to work with up‑to‑date lane data instead of assuming pre‑war patterns still apply. West Coast Shipping’s blog archive — including Day 27’s IRGC turn‑backs, Day 31’s Dubai tanker strike, and Day 32’s Kharg Island and corporate threats — shows how quickly these variables have shifted.
With Tehran rejecting Trump’s Hormuz deadline and hinting at Bab al‑Mandeb, the safest and most economical route for any given shipment can change from week to week. West Coast Shipping tracks developments from sources such as BBC News, Al Jazeera, The Guardian, CNN, The New York Times, and specialist maritime outlets, and translates that into concrete routing choices for each booking.
To see how today’s risk map affects your route, use West Coast Shipping’s international car shipping calculator to compare lanes, ports, and timing with current conditions factored in. Our team can then help you select the safest and most reliable combination of carrier, port, and schedule for your vehicle in the current Hormuz and Red Sea environment.