Iran War Shipping Day 10

The Iran conflict has now entered its tenth day, and a new pattern is emerging in the Strait of Hormuz: selective transit access based on vessel nationality and ownership. While Western-linked shipping remains effectively frozen, Chinese-owned and Iran-linked vessels have begun passing through the strait—creating a two-tier maritime environment that reshapes assumptions about how this crisis will unfold.

For vehicle shippers and logistics planners, this development has significant implications. As we covered in our initial analysis of the Iran war shipping disruption, the situation continues to create real-world delays, stranded cargo, and climbing costs.

Conflict Background: Primary Source Verification

The conflict began on February 28, 2026. According to CNN's live coverage, US President Donald Trump confirmed that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in joint US-Israeli strikes, with CNN reporting that Trump "crossed a very dangerous red line" according to Iranian officials.

The Washington Post reported that "Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike on his Tehran compound, according to four Israeli security officials briefed on the matter."

NPR confirmed that "Khamenei was killed by an Israeli strike, a person briefed on the strike told NPR." NPR also reported that the joint U.S.-Israeli attack—called "Epic Fury" by the Pentagon and "Roaring Lion" by Israel—came after weeks of escalating tensions.

CBS News reported on Day 10 that "the war that began on Feb. 28 after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes hit Iran has so far killed at least 1,230 people in the Islamic Republic, more than 300 in Lebanon and around a dozen in Israel, according to officials."

As CNBC confirmed, "Iranian state media confirmed" Khamenei's death, and the Iranian government "declared 40 days of national mourning."

What Happened Over the Weekend

According to Bloomberg's Hormuz tracker, Strait of Hormuz transit remained near a standstill for a seventh consecutive day on March 8, with Iran-linked ships the only commercial vessels making the crossing in the past 24 hours.

Maritime intelligence from Windward confirms that crossings through the Strait of Hormuz remained extremely limited on March 7, with only three total crossings recorded—one inbound and two outbound—representing a 25 percent decrease from the previous day and significantly below the seven-day average of 13.43 crossings.

As Reuters reported (cited in Jerusalem Post coverage), Iran's Revolutionary Guards transmitted warnings that passage through the Strait of Hormuz was "not allowed" following the strikes.

Iran Announces Selective Access Policy

The most significant development this week is Iran's formalization of a selective transit policy. According to multiple reports, on March 5 the IRGC announced that Iran would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed only to ships from the US, Israel, and their Western allies. This policy was reconfirmed on March 8.

This selective access explains the emerging transit patterns. On March 5, the bulk carrier Iron Maiden, operated by Cetus Maritime Shanghai Ltd., transited the strait while signaling "CHINA OWNER" via AIS broadcast. On March 7, another bulk carrier, the Liberia-flagged Sino Ocean, broadcast its Chinese-owned-and-operated status to transit the strait after picking up cargo from the UAE's Mina Saqr port.

Vessels are now using AIS broadcasts to signal their ownership and crew composition in an attempt to demonstrate non-Western affiliation. This represents a fundamental shift in how commercial shipping operates in the region.

750 Ships Now Trapped or Waiting

The scale of the disruption has grown significantly since the conflict began. According to gCaptain's analysis, the Iran conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, trapping 750 ships and transforming container shipping from an industry bracing for overcapacity into another potential "black swan" supply crunch.

Windward's maritime intelligence reports that more than 1,650 vessels experienced GPS and AIS interference on March 7, representing a 55 percent increase compared with the previous week. Electronic warfare is adding operational risk on top of the kinetic threats, with GPS jamming creating false position reports across the region from Kuwait through the Arabian Gulf and into the Gulf of Oman.

Traffic Redistributing to Other Chokepoints

While Hormuz remains frozen for Western shipping, other regional chokepoints are seeing increased activity as trade flows shift.

According to Windward's daily intelligence report, a total of 34 crossings were recorded at the Bab el-Mandeb on March 7, representing a 47.8 percent increase from the previous day and sitting significantly above the seven-day average of 9.7 crossings.

Transit activity through the Suez Canal also increased on March 7, with 43 crossings recorded—a 59.26 percent increase from the previous day.

The continued strength of Bab el-Mandeb traffic, even as Hormuz remains largely frozen, supports the view that shipping is being redistributed unevenly across regional chokepoints rather than normalizing.

However, the Houthi threat to resume Red Sea attacks means this redistribution carries its own risks. As Xeneta's chief analyst noted, "If Houthi militia resume attacks, as now seems likely, carriers will reverse the decision to return services to the Red Sea and prioritize the safety of crew, ship and cargo."

Carrier Policies Remain Unchanged

All major container shipping lines continue to maintain their operational restrictions announced during the first week of the conflict.

As CNBC reported on March 6, Maersk's FM1 (Far East to Middle East) and ME11 (Middle East to Europe) services remain suspended. The company said the decision was "a precautionary measure to ensure the safety of our personnel and vessels." Shuttle services within the Persian Gulf region are also halted until further notice.

According to the Global Cold Chain Alliance situation report, MSC's "End of Voyage" declaration for all Arabian Gulf-bound cargo remains in effect. Containers destined for ports like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Dammam, and Doha continue to be discharged at the next available safe port, with cargo owners responsible for onward transportation.

Hapag-Lloyd's booking stop for cargo to and from the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman (Sohar), and parts of Saudi Arabia continues.

War Risk Surcharges in Effect

Emergency surcharges implemented during the first week remain active across all carriers serving the region.

According to WorldCargo News, CMA CGM's Emergency Conflict Surcharge applies $2,000 per 20-foot container, $3,000 per 40-foot container, and $4,000 for reefer and special equipment—affecting not only cargo to and from the Gulf but also all Red Sea ports in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Djibouti, Sudan, and Eritrea.

FreightWaves reports that Hapag-Lloyd announced a war risk surcharge of $1,500 per 20-foot equivalent unit for cargo transiting the Arabian and Persian Gulf, effective March 2. Reefer and special containers face charges of $3,500 per TEU.

Oil Prices and Economic Impact

According to NPR's March 9 reporting, global oil prices surged into the triple digits as the war continued to disrupt shipping and energy infrastructure in the Middle East. The price of Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, briefly neared $120 a barrel in early trading Monday, amid fears the conflict could keep tankers sidelined and supplies constrained. Crude oil last traded at above $100 a barrel in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine.

NPR also reported that in Bahrain, the country's state oil company Bapco declared "force majeure" on its operations, allowing it to suspend contractual obligations amid extraordinary disruptions following a drone attack. Officials in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, said a fire broke out at an oil facility that was attacked overnight.

Higher oil prices translate directly to higher bunker fuel costs for vessels, which ultimately flow through to freight rates and shipping costs for all cargo including vehicles.

What This Means for Vehicle Shippers

The emergence of selective transit access creates a complex picture for vehicle importers and exporters. As we explained in our coverage of how Middle East tensions shape Hormuz and Gulf shipping risk, the Persian Gulf region is critical for vehicle shipping to destinations including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain.

For shipments destined for Persian Gulf ports, all major Western-affiliated carriers have suspended service indefinitely. Even if Chinese vessels are transiting the strait, vehicle shipments booked with Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, or CMA CGM cannot access these routes.

For cargo already in transit that was declared "End of Voyage," containers remain stranded at diversion ports. Cargo owners must arrange retrieval and alternative transportation. As Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen explained in our earlier coverage, demurrage charges are accruing at approximately $150 per day.

For shipments to destinations outside the Gulf that normally route through the region, expect delays of 10 to 14 additional days as vessels continue routing around the Cape of Good Hope.

Container Equipment Imbalances Growing

Beyond the immediate transit disruptions, the conflict is creating container equipment imbalances that will take months to resolve.

Every day that containers remain trapped in the Persian Gulf or stranded at diversion ports is a day those boxes are unavailable for cargo moving through other trade lanes. The knock-on effects will ripple outward to Asia-Europe and Transpacific routes in the coming weeks.

According to Freightos' market update, carriers still sailing to the region are diverting containers already in-transit to alternatives in the area, with most volumes likely to be offloaded at major Far East transshipment hubs in Singapore, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka.

Air Freight Also Disrupted

The Iran conflict has affected air cargo networks as well as ocean shipping, compounding logistics challenges for time-sensitive shipments.

According to Supply Chain Dive, FedEx said in a service alert that flights to and from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia have been suspended.

As CNN reported, the conflict "has damaged air hubs, rocked densely populated areas and disrupted oil shipments" across the region.

Longer-Term Market Implications

As gCaptain reported, the Iran conflict has thrust container shipping from an industry bracing for a capacity glut to another potential "black swan" supply crunch. That paradigm shift is reshaping assumptions about freight rates for the remainder of 2026.

According to Xeneta, with a largescale return of container ships to the Red Sea in 2026 now unlikely, freight rates on major global trades will continue to soften, but will not fall as hard as previously expected in the second half of the year.

For vehicle shippers, this means the cost environment for international car shipping is likely to remain elevated through at least the second half of 2026 regardless of when the Hormuz situation resolves.

Timeline Outlook

As one industry executive told gCaptain, "What we're seeing now, depending on how long it goes for, is going to define the market in 2026. Two weeks ago, we barely even saw this coming."

The selective access policy suggests Iran is not seeking a complete blockade but rather using Hormuz as leverage against Western nations specifically. This could mean the closure persists for weeks or longer while Chinese and other non-Western trade continues to flow.

Vehicle shippers planning moves to the Middle East should assume disruptions will continue through at least the end of March. Build contingency plans that account for either overland delivery from alternative ports or extended waiting periods until maritime access resumes.

Practical Steps for Vehicle Shippers

Contact your shipping provider immediately to confirm the status of any bookings or cargo in transit.

For cargo stranded at diversion ports, understand your options for retrieval and the cost implications of storage and onward transportation. Demurrage fees can accumulate at approximately $150 per day per container, quickly adding up over an extended disruption.

For new shipments to Middle East destinations, confirm whether your provider has any access to the region through alternative routing. Overland transportation from ports like Aqaba (Jordan) or Sohar (Oman) may offer alternatives depending on final destination.

For shipments to destinations beyond the immediate conflict zone, factor in 10 to 14 additional days of transit time due to Cape of Good Hope routing. This affects not only Middle East cargo but all Asia-Europe and Asia-US East Coast shipments.

Monitor fuel surcharge announcements as oil prices remain volatile. Bunker adjustment factors are likely to increase as Brent crude prices remain elevated.

Disclaimer: This article is provided by West Coast Shipping as general informational content based on publicly available reporting as of March 9, 2026. The situation in the Middle East is developing rapidly and details may change. This is not legal, financial, or customs advice. All shipping routes, carrier policies, port statuses, and cost figures referenced are illustrative and based on publicly available information at the time of writing. Actual conditions, rates, and timelines may differ. Before making any shipping decisions, contact your logistics provider directly for the most current information.

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